AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading fractionally lower this morning after settling 1 1/4 to 1 3/4 cents higher on Wednesday. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week ending September 15 down 14,000 barrels per day to 1.033 million bpd. Ethanol stocks rose just 6,000 barrels to 21.138 million barrels. This morning’s Export Sales report is expected to show 700,000 MT to 1 MMT in 17/18 corn export sales for the week of September 14. China sold just 11,878 MT of the 226,740 MT of corn offered at their auction of state reserves on Wednesday. Most producers in that country are holding on to more of this year’s crop, as they are banking on higher prices in the coming months.


Soybean futures are currently 5 to 6 cents lower since closing the day 3 1/4 to 4 1/2 cents in the green. Oct soy meal was up $1.30/ton, with nearby bean oil 15 points higher. The USDA announced a large export sale of 1.08 MMT of soybeans to unknown destinations, with 960,000 MT for 17/18 and 120,000 MT for 18/19 in the morning. They also announced a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. The sale of 1.08 MMT to is the ninth largest soybean sale on record for the USDA’s reporting system. Analysts are expecting the Export Sales report for the week of Sep 14 to show 17/18 soybean sales of 1.2 to 1.5 MMT. The USDA reported nearly 1.113 MMT in daily sales during that week. Soy meal sales are expected to total 75,000 to 250,000 MT, with soy oil ranging 0 to 30,000 MT.


Wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents lower in the KC and CHI contracts this morning after they settled Wednesday up 6 to 6 3/4 cents in the nearby CBT and KC contracts. MPLS was 1 to 4 1/4 cents in the green yesterday and is 3 to 5 cents higher this morning. All wheat export sales for 17/18 during the week of September 14 are expected to be in the range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Last week’s total was 316,684 MT. Moisture is in forecast over the next week for most of the Midwest. Rains would slow planting, but relieve some dryness in parts of KS, OK, and NE. Planting progress was reported at 13% complete as of Sunday. On the heels of yesterday’s Stats Canada report, some analysts have increased their Canadian wheat crop estimates to around 27-29 MMT, vs. the USDA’s 26.5 MMT.


Live cattle futures finished the Wednesday session with $1 to 2.975 gains. Feeder cattle futures were $2.375 to $4.475 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down a penny from the previous day at $150.46 on September 19.Wholesale beef prices were lower in the Wednesday afternoon report, with the Ch/Se spread widening to $3.52. Choice was down 7 cents at $192.04, while select boxes were 31 cents lower at $188.52. FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 346,000 through Wednesday, which is 4,000 fewer than last week and 6,000 larger than the same week in 2016. This morning’s online FCE auction showed 636 of the 1,450 head sold at an average price of $106.67, up $1.92 from last week. Of the nine lots for sale, 3 were sold, with another 3 offers of $106-$106.50 passed on. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report is expected to show on feed numbers as of September 1 2.7% larger than a year ago.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the day with Oct down $1.475 and most back months slightly higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/18 was 94 cents lower than the previous day at $61.88. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 4 cents lower at $76.28 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The butt, picnic, and belly cuts were reported lower, with the rib up $6.99. The national base hog carcass was down 90 cents in the PM report at $50.17. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1,361,000 through Wednesday, 10,000 head larger than last week and 42,000 larger than the same week in 2016.


Cotton futures are 14 to 28 points lower this morning ahead of the weekly Export Sales report. They were mostly 6 to 27 points higher yesterday, as Dec was down 2 points. The Fed left interest rates UNCH, but suggested that there could be another rate rise before the end of the year. They also will activate the plan to unwind the long term debt portfolio beginning in October. The Seam reported online cash sales of 492 bales, with prices rising 2.92 points to 68.27 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for September 19 was up 80 points from the previous day at 79.7 cents/lb. China sold another 27,200 MT of cotton in Wednesday’s auction of state reserves that saw 27,400 MT offered. Hurricane Maria is expected to remain away from the US mainland, tracking west of Bermuda by Monday.

Market Commentary provided by:

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